A quiet U.S. deal linked fertilizer trade relief to the release of political prisoners in Belarus
Washington, D.C., United States, 17 December 2025 – In a rare diplomatic move, Belarus released 123 political prisoners on December 13, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski and prominent figures from the country’s 2020 protest movement. The release followed two days of discussions between Belarusian officials and U.S. Special Envoy John Coale and was tied to a U.S. decision to ease sanctions on Belarusian potash exports.
The agreement highlighted how economic tools, humanitarian goals, and global supply chains can intersect. Rather than a traditional political negotiation, the arrangement relied on commodity diplomacy, using sanctions relief as leverage to secure specific human outcomes.
How potash became a bargaining tool
Potash, a key ingredient in agricultural fertilizer, plays an important role in global food production. The United States imposed sanctions on Belarus’s potash sector in 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as part of broader pressure on the Belarusian government over human rights concerns.
Because those sanctions predated the war, U.S. officials were able to frame the deal as a humanitarian exchange rather than a shift in policy toward the conflict in Ukraine. In simple terms, the U.S. offered limited sanctions relief in return for the release of named detainees, making the outcome clear and measurable.
This approach also reflected an existing imbalance in sanctions policy. Russian fertilizer exports have largely remained exempt from U.S. sanctions due to concerns about global food security. That exemption created space for selective flexibility with Belarus, allowing potash to serve as a practical negotiating asset.
Food security and global supply chains
Potash geopolitics are closely tied to food prices and agricultural stability. The U.S. government has repeatedly stated that fertilizers are not the intended target of sanctions because disruptions could raise costs for farmers and consumers worldwide.
At the same time, sanctions had already pushed Belarus to redirect most of its potash exports toward China. Estimates indicate that China’s share of Belarusian potash sales has risen sharply in recent years, thereby increasing Belarus’s dependence on a single market.
By opening a limited alternative channel for Belarusian potash, the U.S. created a non-Chinese outlet for the commodity while also strengthening its own supply flexibility. The U.S. remains heavily dependent on imports for potash, with Canada as its primary supplier. Any disruption in that relationship makes diversification more valuable, especially as fertilizer costs remain a sensitive issue for farmers.
Europe’s reduced role in the deal
One notable aspect of the agreement was the limited involvement of the European Union. Before 2022, Belarus exported much of its potash through Lithuania, but that route was cut off when Lithuania terminated transit agreements. Since then, Belarus has relied more on Russian ports.
The recent deal effectively bypassed Europe, leaving the E.U. to manage its own security and border challenges with Belarus. These include airspace violations, border disruptions, and irregular migration pressures that have intensified in recent months.
While the U.S. focused on a targeted economic-humanitarian exchange, European countries continue to face day-to-day operational and security concerns along their borders with Belarus.
A sign of more transactional diplomacy
The release of political prisoners through potash sanctions relief signals a broader shift toward transactional diplomacy, where economic leverage is used to achieve specific outcomes rather than sweeping policy changes.
For the U.S., the deal addressed several goals at once: securing humanitarian releases, managing supply-chain risks, and creating limited diplomatic space around Belarus without formally changing its stance on regional security.
Whether similar approaches will be used again remains uncertain. What is clear is that commodities like fertilizer are becoming increasingly important tools in modern diplomacy, linking global trade, human rights, and strategic interests in unexpected ways.
