Paper is increasingly positioned as the sustainable substitute for plastic—but the underlying fibre supply picture is getting more volatile, not less. Companies are competing for a finite pool of wood as other sectors increase demand, while wildfires, geopolitics, and emerging regulations on deforestation and degradation add cost, compliance pressure, and uncertainty to virgin forest fibre. In that context, a fast pivot from plastic to paper — without diversifying inputs — risks swapping one environmental crisis, plastic pollution, for another, deforestation, and building a packaging strategy on an increasingly unstable feedstock.
Every year, more than three billion trees, many from the world’s most biodiverse and climate-critical forests, are cut down for paper packaging. That means that forests that provide clean air, fresh water, habitat for wildlife, and carbon storage are ending up in cereal boxes and coffee cups. My organization, Canopy, works with brands to tackle this global problem by asking industry leaders to think outside the box and scale solutions that reduce waste, mitigate supply chain risk, and make sure the world’s Ancient and Endangered Forests aren’t cut down for packaging.
Risky Business in Supply Chain
Currently, competition is increasing for a finite pool of wood, as other sectors such as energy and construction increase their wood consumption. These pressures, alongside new regulations on deforestation and degradation, are expected to drive sustained cost increases, supply volatility, and higher compliance expenditure for companies that rely heavily on virgin wood to make paper packaging.
Companies that use credible certification systems, like Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certified forest fibre, do so to reduce the risk of vital forests showing up in their supply chains. Between wildfires, tariffs, and forthcoming regulations like the European Union Deforestation Regulation, volumes of credibly certified wood are limited and heavily competed for, and will not be sufficient to absorb future demand growth.
So what can a company do to keep up with their own climate and sustainability commitments while ensuring a consistent supply of fibre for their paper packaging needs?
- Reduce reliance on virgin wood by diversifying fibre inputs. Increasing recycled paper content is an excellent option. As demand grows for recycled fibre, the scaling of circular and Next Gen alternatives made from agricultural residues that would normally be burned, like wheat straws will be a way to keep supply both secure and regulation compliant.
- De-risk remaining wood supply by ensuring any continued use of virgin wood is credibly certified, fully traceable, and screened for ecological and social risks, including impacts on Ancient and Endangered Forests or Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
- Plan for future shocks by integrating wood-related risks into scenario analysis and stress testing, and investing in more secure and future-proof inputs.
Next Gen: Thinking Outside the Box
By using agricultural residues and other Next Gen Solutions rather than forest fibre, brands can transform the traditional take-make-waste paper packaging model into one that is circular, resilient, and future-ready. Integrating these innovative fibres — alongside higher recycled content — reduces financial and operational risk while helping keep the world’s forests standing.
Fibre made from materials the world currently throws away, like agricultural residues, solve several problems at once. By using waste as a feedstock, they help reduce pollution, and by using agricultural by-products, new revenue streams are created for farmers and rural communities. Protecting forests is a happy bonus.
Safety First
As brands consider or investigate innovative new materials, ensuring that products will meet established standards around food contact is a top priority.
Data shows that both recycled and Next Gen fibre-based packaging can be designed to meet the same food safety compliance standards as conventional wood-based packaging.
In the latest 2025 update to Canopy’s EcoPaper Database (EPD), there are 53 non-wood alternative fibre-based paper or paper packaging products that are either certified to be safe for food contact or claim compliance with at least one food contact safety regulation. These products are made from a range of feedstocks including sugarcane bagasse, sugar beet residue, cereal straws (wheat straw, rice straw, barley straw), wheat bran, wild grass, hemp, miscanthus, silphie, and bamboo.
Also from the latest EcoPaper Database update, there are 67 products marketed as food-safe verified that have at least some recycled content; 57 of those are 100% recycled content. These represent 29 producer companies, the majority of which have global manufacturing presence and availability.
Brands are right to be cautious, but Canopy’s analysis confirms that both recycled and Next Gen fibre-based packaging can be designed to meet food contact safety standards, offering a viable, low-carbon alternative to conventional materials.
Companies do not have to be limited to a false choice between plastic pollution and deforestation. By reducing overall fibre use, scaling recycled content, integrating Next Gen alternatives, and tightening requirements for any remaining virgin wood supply (credible certification, full traceability, and risk screening), brands can cut climate and biodiversity impacts while building a more resilient packaging strategy — reducing exposure to fibre price volatility and supply disruptions, and staying ahead of evolving deforestation and due-diligence legislation. Next Gen Solutions are a win-win for business and the planet.
